Validated Projection: BTC Rallied from $82K to $109K
Our earlier analysis (dated March 14) correctly:
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Identified the falling wedge breakout
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Targeted a rally to $109K
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Used Fibonacci zones and measured move targets
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Showed a clean 38.2% retracement bounce from $75.2K before the impulsive rise
This historical accuracy validates our current bullish thesis, increasing confidence in the long-term projection to $132K–$150K.
🔍 Latest 2-Day Chart Setup: Potential Paths From $109K
Scenario A: Bullish Continuation to $150K
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Structure: Currently consolidating under $109K resistance
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Symmetry Setup: Similar to the last 100% rally that occurred over ~97 days
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Projected Rally: $109K ➝ $150K (~71% gain), potentially over 108 days (as projected on chart)
Key Bullish Signals:
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Momentum continuation after validated wedge breakout
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Institutional demand growing (ETFs, macro narrative)
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Long-term trendline remains intact
Scenario B: Bearish Retest to $75K Before Resumption
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Possible pullback zone: $75K–$78K (highlighted again on the new chart)
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Fibonacci retracement support: 38.2% at ~$77K, 50% at ~$67K
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Would mirror the previous correction from March–May 2024
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Offers a chance for reaccumulation before resuming toward $150K
Bearish Triggers Could Include:
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Overheated market conditions
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ETF outflows or regulatory friction
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Broader macroeconomic tightening
🎯 Long-Term Target Projection: $150,000+
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Wave structure supports continued extension toward $132K–$150K
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Fibonacci extensions suggest:
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100% measured move from current structure = $132K
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1.618 extension = ~$150K+
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Validated by previous 100% rally post-breakout from wedge
🔗 Consolidated Technical Summary
| Type | Level/Target | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 | $89,924 (23.6%) | Minor retracement |
| Support 2 | $77,422 (38.2%) | Strong bounce zone (historical) |
| Support 3 | $67,475 (50%) | Deep pullback but still bullish medium term |
| Resistance 1 | $109,588 | Key level to break for continuation |
| Target 1 | $132,590 | 100% projection from prior rally |
| Target 2 | $150,000+ | 1.618 extension and cycle top potential |
🧠 Analyst Note (Strategy Recommendation):
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Already Long from $82K? Consider trailing stop near $98K–$101K to protect gains.
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Looking to Enter Fresh?
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If price breaks and closes above $110K, confirmation of bullish continuation.
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If price pulls back to $75K–$77K, it could offer a high-RR reentry point.
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